The potential impact of a shifting Pacific sardine distribution on U.S. West Coast landings

Many fish species are shifting spatial distributions in response to climate change, but projecting these shifts and measuring their impact at fine scales challenging. We present a simulation that projects change fishery landings due distribution shifts, by combining regional ocean biogeochemical models (forced three earth system models, ESMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR), correlative for port-level landings, framework which provides realistic values abundance conditions using an historical “reference period”. demonstrate this approach the northern subpopulation of Pacific sardine, iconic commercial U.S. West Coast. found northward shift sardine (based on subpopulation's habitat suitability), with projected declines southern ports (20%–50% decline 2080) increase (up 50%) or no ports, was consistent across ESMs. Total were more uncertain, HadGEM2 indicating 20% from 2000 15 levels 2070 (a rate 170 mt/y), IPSL 10% (115 GFDL 15% year ~2050 followed sharp decrease. The ESMs also differed timing fishing season frequency closures. Our identified key constraints future can be targeted tactical assessment; included seasonality quota allocation other catch portfolio.